Moutai, which soared a year ago, suddenly fell sharply after the year, who is the loser and who is t

Looking at the world's major markets, no market, industry or a listed company can always maintain, even if the trend is upward, there will be adjustments in the stage. If analyzed from an objective point of view, Kweichow Moutai's share price did not fall suddenly, ** is destined to happen, because the valuation is too high.

1. The high valuation of Kweichow Moutai is the direct cause of Moutai's share price. In recent years, the average fluctuation range of Kweichow Moutai's valuation is in the multiple-33 times, but the recent valuation, the valuation of the stock price in mid-February when it was at an all-time high is about times, even if the current valuation is as high as 57 times, even if the situation in 2021 is calculated with reference to the current ****, ** is also as high as 50 times.

For Kweichow Moutai, the products have been selling well, and even maintaining a state of zero inventory. However, even the best companies cannot last long in the context of high valuations. Although the valuation is not a bubble, after all, as long as the performance is certain enough and the time is long, the bottom valuation can be explored, but the stage valuation is high, and there is naturally a demand for the best.

2. Industry adjustment is also the main reason. In 2020, the liquor stocks in the A** field have become a hot sector, and the constituent stocks in the sector have risen again and again, and even some of them have doubled several times. The valuation of these ** after ** is quite similar to the situation of Kweichow Moutai, which is at a high level in recent years, and the valuation of some sub-high-end liquor stocks was once nearly 200 times.

The state of high valuation of the industry naturally cannot be long-lasting, and when the loosening appears, there will also be industry-wide.

3. The occurrence of A-share **** and the fact that institutions began to withdraw their capital were the inducements for Kweichow Moutai's share price. Recently, not only has the share price of Kweichow Moutai had a negative performance, but the whole market is also not ideal, with the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index and the ChiNext Index all having different degrees. In addition to the occurrence of ****, the fact that mainstream institutions began to withdraw liquor stocks is also one of the reasons for the sharp fall of Kweichow Moutai.

The winners should be those who threw Moutai out early, and the losers are those leeks that were hung on the top of the mountain.

The losers are those who have always held the ** in their hands, and the winners are the ones who threw the ** out very early.

I think the merchant is the eternal winner, no treacherous business, we can't calculate the merchant, buy Moutai when the price rises, the buyer must be the happiest, but now Moutai has fallen, and the heaviest loss is still us, the buyer, so the merchant is the winner, and the buyer must be the loser.

Will Moutai fall below 2,000 yuan?

Since Moutai stood at a high of 2,600 yuan, the Year of the Ox has been unfavorable as soon as the market opens. On March 2, ** at 2058 Dayang per share, the lowest price in the session was 2033 yuan per share. Moutai ushered in another wave of major adjustments.

However, this is also very common. Moutai has had at least five adjustments in its history, and two of them were worse than halves, with five adjustments of more than 20%. Will Moutai fall below 2,000 yuan in this adjustment?

The first major adjustment - from January to October 2008, in just nine months, Moutai fell from 230 yuan** to 84 yuan, a drop of 63%, which was worse than halving;

The second major adjustment - from July 2012 to January 2014, this time it was a year and a half, from 266 yuan to 118 yuan, a drop of 56%, and then halved;

The third major adjustment - from May to August 2015, about three months, from 290 yuan ** to 166 yuan, a decline of 43%, close to halving;

The fourth major adjustment - from January 2018 to October 2018, another nine months, this time it fell from 800 yuan to 509 yuan, a decline of 36%, which is smaller than the above;

The fifth major adjustment - from November 2019 to February 2020, another 3 months, Moutai fell from 1241 yuan** to 960 yuan, a decline of 23%, which is the smallest in the previous adjustments.

On February 10, 2021, the highest ** price of Moutai was 2,601 yuan. As of noon on March 2, Moutai has fallen by nearly 20%. It's another big adjustment, but I don't know when this time will end?

And to what extent? Will it fall below 2,000 yuan?

Having said that, although Moutai has undergone five major adjustments, and each adjustment is higher than 20%, today's Moutai still rushed to a high level of 2,600 yuan, which is more than many times more than the most important adjustment in history. Maybe this adjustment will be healthier?

Throughout the history of Moutai**, there have been at least five adjustments, each of which was more than 20%, and two of them were cut in half. Recently, Moutai has fallen a lot, and if it continues to fall, it is not conducive to **.

Moutai has several big ** ones: from January to October 2008, it fell from 230 yuan to 84 yuan, a decrease of 63%. From July 2012 to January 2014, from 266 yuan to 118 yuan, a drop of 56%.

From May to August 2015, it fell from 290 yuan to 166 yuan, a decrease of 43%, close to the waist; From January 2018 to October 2018. This time, it fell from 800 yuan to 509 yuan, a decrease of 36%; From November 2019 to February 2020, Moutai fell from 1,241 yuan to 960 yuan, a decrease of 23%.

A total of 5 times, namely 2001-2003, 2007-2008, 2012-2013, 2015, 2018.

The reason for Moutai's sharp fall is overestimated. In fact, Moutai's stock price has been overdrawn, and the situation of Kweichow Moutai's development does not match his stock price. In terms of valuation, Moutai's share price is seriously overvalued.

Now the share price of Moutai is nearly 2,000 yuan per share, which means that it takes at least 200,000 yuan to buy 100 shares of Moutai. This ** price is undoubtedly very high, and in such a situation, Kweichow Moutai's share price has obviously had a big bubble. The bubble doesn't last forever, it will burst.

Now Moutai is facing such a situation, many big V have analyzed that the current liquor sector has little room for appreciation, and it is not recommended to buy these liquor plates. In fact, in my judgment, the current situation of this high-end wine brand is not good. The big rise some time ago is also that those low-end liquor has been rising, and the current Moutai is indeed not suitable for buying.

Moutai's current valuation is still very high, still far exceeding the original valuation, which means that Moutai must have a wave of space. In the run-up to May Day, the rise in liquor was strange. Like new energy vehicles, when medicine soared, the reaction of liquor was not very large.

But when these popular sectors did not rise, liquor began to rise sharply. There are indeed many reasons for the sharp fall of Moutai, but in my opinion, the biggest reason is that the bubble is big, so this situation will occur. Many ** managers have also said that the ** in 2021 will not be particularly good, and some ** have begun to increase the proportion of banks, so that it can be seen that the future situation is still relatively grim.

Therefore, the reason for Moutai's sharp decline is that the valuation is too high, which is much higher than Moutai's price-earnings ratio. Therefore, if Moutai wants to continue to go to **, then this risk is still very large. At this stage, it is best to buy some bonds**, and the most important thing is to stabilize your income.

If you don't have a lot of investment experience, then try not to touch the liquor sector as much as possible. <>

Because the development of Moutai is not optimistic, and Moutai's stock price is seriously overvalued.

Because Moutai's valuation is too high, it has exceeded the scope of the public's bearing, and there is a huge bubble, which will naturally burst, which causes even more panic, and more and more people sell.

Because Moutai's valuation is too high and beyond the public's affordability, this situation has caused panic among everyone, and more and more people do not believe in the market value of Moutai.

Moutai's stock price is fast, resulting in heavy losses for many investors, and the huge profit deficit caused by it is not paid by investors in the end.

Moutai fell from a high point of about 1,900 yuan around September to 1,360 yuan a share, a decline of more than 28%, but even if it fell to 1,360 yuan, the price-earnings ratio is still about 28 times, and I still feel that this is still too high.

In the past many years, Moutai has ensured that the profit growth rate has reached more than 20% through sales growth and promotion, which has also made Moutai's share price rise significantly, and the highest price has risen to 2,600 yuan in previous years.

However, in the future, with the changes in some macro policies and the changes in residents' consumption habits, with the development of Moutai, the number of people drinking Moutai may decrease in the future, so that Moutai may face bottlenecks in the way that it wants to promote performance growth through price increases, and the growth of Moutai's performance may be relatively slow in the next few years.

Therefore, the future development speed of Moutai may slow down, and it will be difficult to support the current **.

The second reason for Moutai's ****** is that the price-earnings ratio is too high. Now Moutai's share price is 1,360 yuan a share, and the price-earnings ratio is still multiple, which is obviously too high compared with the price-earnings ratio of bank stocks and energy stocks, which are only four or five times at every turn.

In the past month, Moutai's share price has fallen from about 1,900 yuan to about 1,360 yuan now, about 28% from the high, but now it is probably not the low point of Moutai, and Moutai may continue to decline in the future, and the share price of Moutai may fall to about a few hundred yuan in the future.

Therefore, Moutai's price-earnings ratio is too high, now 1360 yuan, and a price-earnings ratio of more than 28 times, and Moutai's share price may decline in the future.

Now Moutai's share price is 1360 yuan, with a price-earnings ratio of 28 times, and Moutai's share price may continue to decline in the future. Now there are many bank stocks, energy stocks and other price-earnings ratios of only four or five times, and the annual dividend yield is more than 6%, and many of the performance growth rate is also okay, so these may be more difficult to decline in the future, relatively more suitable for value investment and long-term investment.

For Moutai, with changes in the macro environment, the future development speed may be slower, and the performance growth may also be slow, so Moutai's share price may gradually return to value, and it may be lowered to a P/E ratio of about 10 times, or even to five or six times the P/E ratio.

If it is lowered to 10 times the P/E ratio, then Moutai's share price will probably fall to 471 yuan, and if Moutai's share price is lowered to 5 times the P/E ratio, then Moutai's share price will probably fall to about 236 yuan.

To sum up, Moutai's share price has caused many investors to suffer a lot of losses, but Moutai's current share price is still 1360 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio is still relatively high, and it may fall to 10 times the price-earnings ratio or 5 times the price-earnings ratio in the future.

It must be the shareholders who will pay for it, but I think Moutai will definitely rise back.

Generally, as long as the alcohol products are ****, then the economic chain between these brands must be reorganized, and they generally need to be responsible for themselves.

The market is self-regulated, and although it may be distorted at times, the value will be accepted.

Why did Moutai fall so much?

Moutai will fall so much, mainly because the current valuation of Moutai is too high, so that it has reached a necessary level, and at the same time, the entire sector is now at an inflated level. This is to talk about a news about the liquor sector, after the previous crazy rise in the liquor sector, there is currently a large-scale phenomenon in the entire liquor sector, of which Moutai, as a leading stock in the liquor sector, has also seen a sharp retreat.

This is the result of an overall market reaction, which can be understood in this way, on the one hand, because of the problem of leading stocks, on the other hand, it is also related to the valuation of the entire liquor sector, because now the entire liquor sector needs the best of the best, and it is also a very unrealistic thing to keep rising like this.

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