The fertility rate has fallen from 6 to 1 3, what has China experienced?

Our country has always been a country with a large population and a country with a high fertility rate. Since ancient times, China has attached great importance to the concept of family, so it has always attached great importance to children, many families were very fond of having children, a family may have about 3 or even 4 children, but the problem brought by this is that there are too many children to raise, and there is not enough education, so later China implemented family planning. Later, with the serious aging of China's population, China gradually opened up the two-child policy, but the population fertility rate has not been expected to rise sharply, according to the results of the seventh census last year, China's fertility rate has dropped from 6% that year, both into the ranks of low fertility countries, but also into the "low fertility trap" (when the fertility rate is lower than it is difficult to rise again).

I think that in the 50s of the last century, the fertility rate in China was as high as about 7%, and it has been around 5% to 6% since then. So what has happened to China in the past decade to become what it is today? <>

First of all, let's take a look at the problem of the world's fertility rate: Germany has been a country with a low birth rate for the longest time, and the population growth rate of the United States in 2020 fell to the lowest level in nearly 100 years, second only to the Great Depression; For Japan, the declining birthrate has always been the "number one problem"; South Korea has long been the country with the lowest birth rate in the world. And according to the World Bank, fertility is inversely proportional to the country's level of development, so there is no need to be too nervous about China's low fertility rate for the time being.

So what is the reason for the low fertility rate in our country? According to the survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Family Planning Commission, it should basically be due to the following reasons:1

Due to the gradual acceleration of the pace of life, everyone works too long hours and simply does not have time to think about having children and taking care of children; 2.Because China's housing prices are indeed too high, many young people cannot afford to buy a house, and they cannot make initial preparations for having children; 3.At present, China's married population has too much money on education, and spends too much on tutoring classes, schooling, etc., and the per capita disposable income is generally only about four or five thousand even in Shanghai and Beijing, so it is impossible to raise children in this case.

This situation will not have a great impact on the mother's China for the time being, but in the future, its situation is very severe, first of all, the problem of pension, China's labor force is insufficient, the aging of the population is serious, and it will be a problem in terms of pension; The second is about national development, no matter how automated a country's development is, it still needs to be dominated by human beings, if the labor force declines too much, it will have a great impact on the country's development, and many countries in the world use practical actions to tell us that once the fertility rate declines, it is really difficult to rise, for example, it took Sweden more than 30 years to increase the fertility rate from. It can be seen from this that in the face of the population problem, China has a long way to go. <>

Because there are many only children in the 80s and 90s. At present, they are the main force of fertility, but their number is small, and there are naturally fewer newborns.

Because China's development is relatively fast, some young people pay more attention to their careers, so everyone's marriage rate is relatively low, and the fertility rate is relatively low.

China has gone through the path of Japan and South Korea, and now people want to have children, but they can't afford to have children, and the cost is too great.

It has also experienced a lot, and the birth rate in our country has been very low in recent times, and it has also led to the development of our country slower and slower.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual birth population in China in 2019 was 14.65 million, and the birth rate is the lowest in China since 1949. The primary reason for the decline in fertility in 2019 was about 5 million fewer women of childbearing age between 15 and 49 years, and about 6 million fewer women of childbearing age between 20 and 29 years**.

The decline in the number of women of childbearing age will inevitably lead to a decrease in the number of births. The birth time of women of childbearing age aged 20-29 is 1991-2000, in addition to the strict family planning policy still implemented in China at that time, fewer children were born, since the 80s of the 20th century, the gender imbalance of China's birth population is more serious (more men than women), and it is also a reason for the small number of women of childbearing age now.

Factors influencing fertility in China.

The general fertility rate is influenced by two factors, namely, the age-specific fertility rate and the age structure of women of childbearing age. When comparing fertility levels between two places or over different periods, it is necessary to remove the influence of age structure from the general fertility rate, that is, to calculate the fertility rate using the age structure of a uniform standard population, which is called fertility standardization.

The data show that the fertility rate by age is lower in B, but the general fertility rate is lower than that of B, and this contradiction is caused by the large proportion of young women of childbearing age who are fertile in B. This comparative relationship of fertility, which is distorted by the age structure, is adjusted in the process of standardization.

The above content refers to People's Daily - The birth rate of Chinese population hit a new low in 2019 Do young people not want to have babies?

The era of low fertility in our country has lasted for 30 years. The best age for women to have children: 23 to 30 years old, on the other hand, physiologists agree that between 23 and 30 years old is the best age for women to have children.

During this period, the woman's whole body is fully mature, the quality of the eggs is high, if the pregnancy is born, the risk of childbirth is small, the fetus grows and develops well, and the incidence of premature birth, malformed babies and dementia babies is the lowest. Couples in this age group have more life experience, are energetic, and have the ability to raise babies and young children.

If a woman becomes pregnant and gives birth too early, the fetus competes with the developing mother for nutrition, which is not good for the mother's health and fetal development.

Low fertility has been going on in China for 30 years.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics and the former National Family Planning Commission, in 1991, China's total fertility rate was the average number of children per woman of childbearing age. The total fertility rate is considered to be the replacement level, capable of maintaining neither growth nor decrease in the population.

Since 1991, this fertility curve has been trending downward and has never returned to that level. Although in the past few years, the country has successively liberalized the "single second child" and "comprehensive second child", but the fertility rate has rebounded slightly and then began to decline.

From a statistical point of view, fertility is more important than birth rate.

China's fertility rate has actually been announced at the time of the Seventh Census

The total population in 2020 is still growing by 100 million people, an increase of 72.04 million compared to 100 million people in 2010 at the time of the sixth census.

However, the total fertility rate in 2020 was as low as 12 million people per year, and the annual low population of 12 million people also showed serious challenges to the development of the Chinese population.

Before the 70s of the last century, China's total fertility rate (later known as fertility rate) once exceeded 6, but in 2020, this data has fallen to the lowest fertility rate in the world.

It took 20 years for our fertility rate to fall from six to two

In 2020, the total population continued to grow by 100 million, an increase of 72.04 million compared with 100 million in 2010 at the time of the sixth census. However, the total fertility rate in 2020 is as low as 12 million, and the annual birth population is at a new low, which also shows the serious challenges of Chinese population development.

Since 2011, China's fertility policy has begun to turn around, from restricting births to encouraging births, but women's fertility intentions are gone, and the expected fertility tide has failed again and again. According to the latest census data, in 2020, China's total fertility rate was:

Once the fertility rate falls, it is very difficult to recover.

According to the national data survey, in 2020, the national birth rate fell below 1% for the first time, and then this data rushed to the hot search of major networks, and I also paid more attention to this data, and many people also had a lot of worries, because China's birth rate has been falling off a cliff in recent years, especially breaking through the 1% mark, it can be said that the birth rate is becoming lower and lower, and the demographic crisis will come in advance.

With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous progress of society, China's birth rate will become lower and lower, and there may be a rebound, but this kind of thing will become relatively low.

The main reason

1. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China has changed from an agricultural society to an industrial country, and at the beginning of China's agricultural society, it needs a large number of people to continuously improve productivity and meet the needs of society and families.

After China's reform and opening up, the industrial age changed the mode of people's productivity relations, and the original manpower has been slowly replaced by machines, so there is no need for a large population to maintain the need for productivity, so people's birth rate has become lower and lower.

2. China's fertility policy has a great deal to do with it. Since the 80s of the last century, China has implemented the one-child program, the purpose of which is to reduce the number of births in order to reduce the pressure on the state and society, and the release of this national policy is also based on China's national conditions at that time. From the perspective of the time, this national policy was correct, but the national policy has been implemented for too long, people's concepts have undergone profound changes, and the concept of the only child has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

Therefore, people no longer pursue high fertility rates, but pursue independent lives, so many young people no longer like to raise more children, but like to leave more time for themselves, which has also led to the decline in the birth rate of the Chinese population at this level.

3. The most important point is that the cost of raising children in the whole society is too heavy, resulting in many ordinary young people not being able to afford to raise a second child after raising a child, which also leads to many young people only daring to give birth to a child after marriage without the courage to give birth to another child, the second child, if you give birth to a second child, will only make your quality of life become lower and lower, and the financial pressure will become greater and greater.

In my opinion, China's fertility rate has been declining year after year, mainly because of two aspects: not wanting to have children and not being able to have children.

1. For the problem of not wanting to have children, one is that they don't want to get married, and the other is that they choose not to give birth to the next generation after marriage. Contemporary young people don't want to get married, from the perspective of boys, most of them will feel that they can live freely before marriage, can freely spend their own time, do not need to report to the **, do not have to bear the pressure of family life; From a girl's point of view, I can earn my own money, own my own house, and do what I want. After returning home tired from work, I can fall asleep without worrying about whether the other person comes home to eat, and why should I bring an uncertain person with me to be able to live a life alone.

Moreover, both parties can have happiness in love, but if marriage is a matter of two families, there will be a lot more contradictions, and the burden will be much heavier, plus the cost of marriage and the problem of bride price. According to statistics, the marriage rate in my country in 2021 is only.

After getting married, more young couples enjoy the world of the two more, thinking that having children will interfere with the relationship between the two people, especially for women, giving birth to a child from the early stage to the late stage of pregnancy, and then to the recovery period after pregnancy are very frightening, pain, stretch marks, body shape and a series of problems, will make some girls shy away. In addition, in today's era of fast life, the transition from love to marriage has also become rushed, and the divorce rate has also increased significantly, with the average divorce rate reaching 4 in 2021. If they have offspring, it will have a very bad impact on the child after the divorce, and both parties are not ready to be responsible for themselves and the child's life, so they generally do not have offspring.

Second, the problem of not being able to afford to have a child also has a lot to do with the development model of the current life. In the past, having children was either for the sake of inheritance or to increase the labor force, which was positive growth for a family; But now, the cost of a child, from birth to financial independence, is difficult for an ordinary family to support, let alone the second and third children. From the daily necessities of the child's birth to the various training expenses of the offspring of school, although the cost of going to school is not high now, no one wants their children to only read, various interest training classes, various activities, and various equipment follow-up all require a large amount of financial support.

As we all know, China is a country with a large population, and a large population is a major advantage of our country, which is conducive to creating and expanding the market, and the country's GDP is related to the level of population consumption, which is a major factor in promoting economic development. Social development and scientific progress and innovation are inseparable from the input and output of talents, and a large population can solve the problem of talent demand. China's rapid rise in a few decades and its development into the forefront of the world can be said to have played a crucial role in the large population.

However, with the strength of China, the demographic problem has changed, and the structure of the Chinese population has gradually changed from stable to aging, mainly due to the decline in fertility. Regarding the decline in the birth rate, I have the following observations:

It is easy to have a child for life, but it is difficult to raise a child

It's easy to have children, but it's easy to raise children" has become the reason and reason why almost all young couples don't want to have children, but this is an indisputable fact. If a family is not very wealthy, raising children will only make the pressure greater, and now many people have mortgages, car loans, etc., and many times can only barely support themselves, how can they take care of their children, basically they will choose not to have children for the time being. It is now common to find that children are born to be raised by grandparents, and young couples who are financially independent and have more time to spend with their children will choose to raise their children on their own.

2. Social welfare and policy support

It is generally believed that the protection for childbirth is too insufficient, so that many families have worries. The cost of raising a child is too high, for example, at the level of education, a family faces various pressures in addition to financial pressures. With the change of population structure, the state should open up the three-child policy to further alleviate the population problem, and the state should improve social welfare, dispel family concerns, expand policies in raising children, and relax as much as possible.

In particular, in the area of education, it is necessary not only to expand the fertility rate, but also to increase the quality of the people, and to increase support at the employment level and policy support at the per capita income level, so as to reduce the level of disparity between the rich and the poor.

Third, there is an imbalance in the age composition and sex ratio

Population density is also indirectly related to other factors. The age composition of the population has a certain ability to develop the trend of population density. For example, if young couples choose not to have children for a long time, they will not be able to have children when they reach a certain age, and if most people are older and do not choose to have children, it will definitely lead to a decline in fertility.

In addition, the imbalance in the sex ratio is also an important factor leading to the decline of the fertility rate, such as the idea of preference for sons over women, as well as "the birth of a boy is the construction bank, and the birth of a girl is the China Merchants Bank", etc., which will lead to the unequal ratio of men and women, and is also an important factor leading to the decline of the fertility rate.