What are the methods for selecting the leading industries?

(1) Criteria for association effects.

Also known as the Hirschman benchmark, the so-called industrial linkage effect refers to the degree of correlation between various industries, and there must be an industry with the highest correlation coefficient in the input-output relationship between the forward industry and the backward industry in the industrial linkage chain, and the development of this industry has a greater role in promoting the development of its forward and backward industries. Therefore, taking this industry as the leading industry is conducive to driving the simultaneous development of other industries.

2) Income elasticity criteria.

The demand income elasticity benchmark is the degree to which changes in an industry reflect changes in per capita income from the perspective of demand. The income elasticity of demand is the ratio of the increase rate of product demand to the growth rate of per capita national income under the premise of unchanged, reflecting the trend of increasing social demand for products in the industry with the growth of national income. Under the circumstance that the per capita income level is gradually rising, it is in line with the direction of change in the industrial structure to take the industries with high demand income elasticity as the leading industries and gradually increase their proportion in the industrial structure.

To measure the degree of reflection of the change in demand of a certain industry to the change of per capita income, there are two indicators: the demand income elasticity value and the scale elasticity value of a certain industry.

3) Productivity standards.

From the perspective of supply, we select industries with rapid technological progress and high productivity growth as the leading industries. Generally speaking, the technological progress of heavy chemical industry is faster than that of light industry, and the technological and knowledge-intensive industry is faster than that of heavy industrial technological progress. As long as the growth elasticity and the rate of technological progress of each industrial sector are measured, the industries with the highest values of these two indicators can be selected as the leading industries.

1. The industry should have broad development prospects and progress space, and there will be huge market demand in the future;

2. It has a strong industry-driven effect, can provide demand and supply to other industries, and promote the development of other industries;

3. Have a high technical content, be able to continuously promote technological innovation and complete the important task of scientific and technological revolution;

4. It has very obvious regional advantages.

Leading industries, as the name suggests, are the industries that play a leading role in the regional economy, which refers to those industries that have a certain proportion of output value, adopt advanced technology, have a high growth rate, have a strong degree of industrial relevance, and have a strong driving role in other industries and the economic development of the entire region. From the quantitative point of view, the leading industry should be an industrial sector that accounts for a large proportion of the gross national product or national income or is likely to occupy a large proportion in the future; From a qualitative point of view, it should be an industrial sector that occupies a pivotal position among the entire nation, can have a decisive impact on the speed and quality of economic growth, and its small development changes are enough to bring about changes in other industries and the national economy as a whole, thus causing an economic upsurge.

Conditions for the formation of leading industries:

The leading industry is an industry with a certain scale, which can give full play to its economic and technological advantages, change the production function with technological advantages, and have a strong role in promoting and driving economic development and industrial structure evolution. It generally has the following significant characteristics: first, it has a strong ability to innovate, obtains a new production function associated with new technologies, and can achieve "industrial breakthroughs".

Second, it has a sustained sectoral growth rate that is higher than the overall economic growth rate. Third, it has a strong diffusion effect, and can widely adopt a variety of means to drive or start the growth of other industries; It has a wide-ranging direct and indirect impact on the growth of other industries. Fourth, it has a significant industrial scale and good development potential, and is the pillar and leading factor of regional economic development.

Fifth, it has a phased nature in time, which is constantly changing with the different stages of economic development. Based on the above five characteristics of the leading industry, the following principles should be followed when selecting the leading industry: First, the leading industry must be compatible with the stage of regional economic development and the level of development.

Second, it should have obvious comparative advantages, great market potential, and bright export prospects. Third, good economic returns and a relatively fast economic growth rate. Fourth, the industrial linkage effect is strong.

Leading industries: industries that play an organizational and driving role in regional economic growth;

Leading industry: an industry or industrial cluster that has an important strategic position in the national economic system and is developed first in the national economic plan to guide other industries to develop in the direction of a certain strategic goal, which may not have a supporting role;

Pillar industries: industries that have a great impact on the total expansion or have a high proportion in regional economic growth;

Leading industry: Bottleneck industry or basic industry in the narrow sense, leading industry in the broad sense.

The selection and cultivation of leading industries is a major strategic goal of the implementation of industrial policy. Leading industries are often hailed as the initiator and driving wheel of economic development, and are therefore favored by economists. The adjustment of the industrial structure must take the leading industries as the core in order to promote the development of the entire economy, which is the consensus reached by people after summing up the industrial economic development trajectories of developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany.

At present, high and new technology is on the eve of making a breakthrough, and the industrialization of high and new technology will inevitably bring about a leap in productivity. Using high and new technologies to usher in the liberation of productive forces and gain late-mover advantages is a good opportunity for developing countries to leap forward into the ranks of developed countries. As a developing country, China not only has a sense of urgency to concentrate its efforts on developing high and new technologies, but is also faced with the arduous task of speeding up the transformation of traditional industries.

To this end, we should establish the order of selection of China's leading industries in accordance with China's national conditions and the general law of world economic development. Through the correct selection, key support, and accelerated cultivation of leading industries, we can correct the deviation of China's industrial structure, realize the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and then drive the entire national economy to rise in an all-round way.